California voters are choosing all 52 of the state’s U.S. House members on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, and for the first time they are doing it on district lines drawn by the Legislature under Proposition 50. A handful of these California House races are on national lists of the closest contests, and with Republicans holding a slim majority in Washington, the state’s slow, mail-heavy count can keep control of the chamber unsettled for days.
Where it stands: Voting is under way at vote centers and polling places statewide, and no results have been reported. The Secretary of State says counties begin posting returns at 8 p.m. Nothing below is a result or a forecast.
This guide lists the districts drawing the most attention, both candidates in each from the state’s certified list, who holds each seat now, and how the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rated each one as of Nov. 2. How the vote is tallied county by county is covered in our guide to when California election results come in.
Which California House races are competitive in 2026?
By Cook’s count, four California districts are not safe for either party: the 13th, 22nd, 45th and 48th. A few others, including the 1st, 6th and 40th, are drawing attention for reasons beyond the party label.
270toWin, which publishes Cook’s ratings in table form, lists only districts Cook does not consider safe. On its table “As of November 2, 2026,” Cook rated the Central Valley’s 22nd District a Toss-up, the San Diego-area 48th Lean Democratic, and the 13th and 45th Likely Democratic. No other California district appears on that table, which means Cook rated the remaining 48 as safe for one party.
CalMatters, the nonprofit newsroom, frames the stakes this way in its voter guide: “Five seats currently in Republican hands could flip to Democrats.” That is a statement of possibility, not a prediction, and ratings can miss.
| District | Top-two matchup | Who holds it now | Cook rating (as of Nov. 2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st (North State to Santa Rosa) | James Gallagher (R) vs. Mike McGuire (D) | Gallagher (R), since the June special | Not on Cook’s competitive list; Cook called it solid Democratic in June |
| 6th (Sacramento suburbs) | Kevin Kiley (no party preference) vs. Richard Pan (D) | Kiley represents the 3rd now | Not on Cook’s competitive list |
| 13th (northern San Joaquin Valley) | Adam Gray (D) vs. Kevin Lincoln (R) | Gray (D) | Likely Democratic |
| 22nd (southern Central Valley) | David G. Valadao (R) vs. Randy Villegas (D) | Valadao (R) | Toss-up |
| 40th (Riverside and Orange counties) | Ken Calvert (R) vs. Young Kim (R) | Kim holds the 40th; Calvert the 41st | Not on Cook’s competitive list |
| 45th (Orange and Los Angeles counties) | Derek Tran (D) vs. Chuong V. Vo (R) | Tran (D) | Likely Democratic |
| 48th (East and North San Diego County) | Jim Desmond (R) vs. Marni von Wilpert (D) | Open; Issa (R) is retiring | Lean Democratic |
Candidate names and party labels come from the Secretary of State’s certified list of candidates, dated Aug. 27. Current officeholders come from the House Clerk’s member roster. Ratings are Cook’s alone; other forecasters may differ.
What did Prop 50 change about California’s House districts?
Prop 50 swapped the maps drawn by the state’s independent redistricting commission for maps drawn by the Legislature, and those new maps are in use through the 2030 elections.
The Legislative Analyst’s Office, the Legislature’s nonpartisan fiscal adviser, describes the measure plainly: “Proposition 50 replaces California’s current congressional district maps with new, legislatively drawn maps.” The analysis adds that the new lines apply starting in 2026 and stay in place “until the Commission draws new district maps, following the 2030 U.S. Census.” The number of districts stayed at 52.
The backdrop was Texas. The LAO notes that “In August 2025, however, the Texas Legislature passed a bill to adopt new maps for the 2026 elections without a court order.” Gov. Gavin Newsom pitched Prop 50 as a response. Since 2010, California’s maps had been drawn by the California Citizens Redistricting Commission, which has 14 members split among Democrats, Republicans and voters registered with neither party.
Voters approved the measure in a special election on Nov. 4, 2025. The Secretary of State’s supplement to the statement of vote shows 7,453,339 yes votes to 4,116,998 no, or 64.4% to 35.6%. Al Jazeera summarized the effect on Oct. 30: districts once seen as good ground for Republicans “have instead become hotly-contested races between the two parties.”
Who is running in California’s 22nd District?
Republican Rep. David G. Valadao, the incumbent, faces Democrat Randy Villegas, a Visalia school board member and college professor. It is the only California House race Cook rated a Toss-up as of Nov. 2.
The redrawn seat spans parts of several Central Valley counties, from the east side of Bakersfield north to a slice of Fresno. KVPR, the Fresno public radio station, reported on Oct. 16 that under Prop 50 “Democrats now make up 42% of registered voters, compared to 26% Republicans.” Valadao has held on before in a district with more registered Democrats; KVPR noted he has won six of the last seven elections there.
Both parties treat it as a top target. House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned for Valadao in late September and told voters, “There’s not a stop that I will make that is more important than the district we’re standing in right now.” At a televised debate, Villegas said Valadao had “betrayed the Central Valley” by voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, last year’s law that cut Medicaid spending and added work requirements. Valadao defended the law’s work requirements: “This is not an unreasonable ask.”
What are the other California congressional races to watch?
The 48th, 13th and 45th are the other districts on Cook’s competitive list, and the 1st, 6th and 40th each feature a sitting member of Congress running on newly drawn lines.
48th District (open). Republican Rep. Darrell Issa is retiring. San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, a Republican, moved districts to run and faces Democratic San Diego Councilmember Marni von Wilpert. CalMatters wrote that the seat’s “voter makeup shifted from deep red to slightly blue under Prop. 50.” Cook rated it Lean Democratic.
13th District. Democratic Rep. Adam Gray faces Republican Kevin Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor. Gray won the seat in 2024 by 187 votes. Cook rated the redrawn district Likely Democratic.
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45th District. Democratic Rep. Derek Tran faces Republican Chuong V. Vo, whose ballot designation is retired police officer. Cook rated it Likely Democratic.
1st District. Republican James Gallagher won a June special election to finish the term of the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa, under the old lines. In November he faces Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire in a redrawn district that, according to North State Public Radio, “now stretches from rural parts of the North State into more Democratic-leaning Sonoma County, including Santa Rosa.” NSPR reported in June that Cook rated it solid Democratic, and it does not appear on Cook’s Nov. 2 competitive list.
6th District. Rep. Kevin Kiley, elected as a Republican in the 3rd District, is now listed by the House Clerk as an independent. He is running in the Sacramento-area 6th as a no party preference candidate against Democrat Richard Pan, a physician and former state senator.
40th District. Two Republican incumbents, Ken Calvert and Young Kim, are running against each other. CalMatters reported that Calvert was drawn out of his old district. Because both finalists are Republicans, the seat stays in GOP hands whoever wins.
Why are some California districts Democrat vs. Democrat?
California’s top-two primary sends the two leading vote-getters to November regardless of party, so some safe seats have two candidates from the same party.
In San Francisco’s 11th District, where Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi is retiring, state Sen. Scott Wiener faces Supervisor Connie Chan, both Democrats. In Sacramento’s 7th, Rep. Doris Matsui faces City Councilmember Mai Vang, also both Democrats. These races do not affect which party controls the House, but they can change the makeup of California’s delegation. The same rule produced the Calvert-Kim contest in the 40th.
Can California’s long count decide House control?
It can, if the national result is close. California counts ballots for weeks, and its closest House races are often among the last in the country to be called.
Election analyst Joe Lenski, whose company SSRS runs a national exit poll, told PolitiFact for an Oct. 29 report: “In U.S. House races, there are always a handful of districts that are not called on election night or the day after, mostly in California, Lenski said.” Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they reach the county within a week. Most ballots are reported by the 13th day, and PolitiFact noted that counting for provisional ballots and signature-cure ballots should be finished “within 30 days after the election.”
The 13th District shows how long that can take. CalMatters wrote that Gray’s 187-vote margin in 2024 was so narrow “it took nearly a month for The Associated Press to call the race.” Voters who want to confirm their own ballot landed can use our ballot-tracking walkthrough; mail-voting rules are in our explainer on California vote by mail.
For a House seat this close, the official finish line is the state’s own: the Secretary of State’s calendar gives counties until Dec. 3, 2026, to finish their canvass, with statewide certification set for Dec. 11, 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the most competitive California House races in 2026?
As of Nov. 2, the Cook Political Report rated the 22nd District a Toss-up, the 48th Lean Democratic, and the 13th and 45th Likely Democratic. Cook rated every other California district as safe for one party.
Who is running in California’s 22nd Congressional District?
Republican Rep. David G. Valadao, the incumbent, faces Democrat Randy Villegas, according to the Secretary of State’s certified list of candidates.
Why are Ken Calvert and Young Kim running against each other?
The Prop 50 map drew Calvert out of his old district into the 40th, which Kim represents. Both advanced from the June top-two primary, so both November finalists are Republicans.
How long does California take to count House votes?
Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they arrive within a week. County canvasses close Dec. 3, 2026, and statewide certification is scheduled for Dec. 11, 2026.
Is Kevin Kiley a Republican or an independent?
The House Clerk lists Kiley as an independent representing the 3rd District. He is running in the 6th District as a no party preference candidate against Democrat Richard Pan.
Sources
- Certified List of Candidates for the November 3, 2026, General Election — California Secretary of State, August 27, 2026
- General Election, November 3, 2026: Key Dates and Deadlines — California Secretary of State, accessed November 3, 2026
- Supplement to the Statement of Vote, November 4, 2025, Statewide Special Election — California Secretary of State, 2026
- Proposition 50: Analysis of Measure — Legislative Analyst’s Office, November 4, 2025 ballot
- Member List, 119th Congress — Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives, accessed November 3, 2026
- Cook Political Report 2026 House Ratings (table) — 270toWin, as of November 2, 2026
- California U.S. House: Races to watch in 2026 midterm election — CalMatters, accessed November 3, 2026
- Both candidates in House District 22 say they can win their race. Polls tell a different story. — KVPR / Valley Public Radio, October 16, 2026
- Looking ahead: Gallagher, McGuire march toward November — North State Public Radio, June 5, 2026
- What to know about California’s midterm elections — Al Jazeera, October 30, 2026
- Why election night results may not tell the whole story — PolitiFact, October 29, 2026
This article is news reporting and analysis based on the public sources listed above, as they stood on the dates shown. Where officials, lawmakers or analysts disagree, including on whether an action is lawful, their positions are attributed to them; California News Now is not a court and nothing here is legal advice. Facts in a developing story can change.